Juan Cole has an insightful article on the likely consequences of our heavy-handed and disastrous involvement in Iraq - the piece is titled
How Bush Created a Theocracy in Iraq:
The Bush administration naively believed that Iraq was a blank slate on which it could inscribe its vision for a remake of the Arab world. Iraq, however, was a witches' brew of dynamic social and religious movements, a veritable pressure cooker. When George W Bush invaded, he blew off the lid.
Shiite religious leaders and parties, in particular, have crucially shaped the new Iraq in each of its three political phases. The first was during the period of direct American rule, largely by Paul Bremer. The second comprised the months of interim government, when Iyad Allawi was prime minister. The third stretches from the formation of an elected government, with Ibrahim Jaafari as prime minister, to today.
In the first phase, expatriate Shiite parties returned to the country to emerge as major players, to the consternation of a confused and clueless Coalition Provisional Authority ...
Cole provides a lengthy recapitulation of what ensued, detailing how the US lost control of events in Iraq after the invasion and quick military victory. The article concludes by describing the tremendous damage Bush and the neocons have done to the long-term interests of the United States, the consequences of which seem only to be dimly, if at all, perceived by US media, the pundit class and (sadly) leading Democrats. The shapers of American public opinion certainly aren't openly discussing the likely consequences. Which is profoundly irresponsible. The fallout from the mess Bush has wrought is something we will be living with very long time to come.
The hawks in the Bush administration had initially hoped that a conquered Iraq would form the launching pad for a further American war on Iran. The Shiites of Iraq foiled that plan. Sistani forced the Americans into direct, one-person, one-vote elections. Those elections in turn ensured that the religious Shiites would come to power, since they had the greatest street credibility, given their long struggle against Saddam and their nationalist credentials in the face of American occupation.
An Iraq dominated by religious Shiites who had often lived in exile in Iran for decades is inevitably an Iraq with warm relations with Tehran. The U.S., bogged down in a military quagmire in the Sunni Arab regions, cannot afford to provoke massive demonstrations and uprisings in the Shiite areas of Iraq by attacking Iran. Bush has inadvertently strengthened Iran, giving it a new, religious Shiite ally in the Gulf region. The traditional Sunni powers in the region, such as the kings of Saudi Arabia and Jordan, are alarmed and annoyed that Bush has created a new "Shiite crescent." Far from weakening or overthrowing the ayatollahs, Bush has ensconced and strengthened them. Indeed, by chasing after imaginary weapons of mass destruction in Iraq, he may have lost any real opportunity to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon should it decide to do so ...
Link to the complete article.
National Debunker